XCO 2026: Korea opens the World Cup without a script

Less than a week from the World Cup XCO opener at Mona YongPyong, two pieces of news complete the reshuffle of every prediction: Victor Koretzky's injury (fractured humerus) and the confirmation that world champion Alan Hatherly will race the Giro d'Italia in May and won't be in Korea. On top of that, Bjorn Riley's first HC Elite victory at Haiming reorders the Scott-SRAM hierarchy. We've crossed every piece of pre-season data to build the prediction for the season opener.

Korea: a historic (and complex) debut

From May 1 to 3, Olympic Cross-country sets foot on Asian soil for the first time. The Race of South Korea takes place at Mona YongPyong, in the PyeongChang region — same one that hosted the 2018 Winter Olympics. With a seven-hour difference from Central Europe, heavy logistics and a course that will barely be known until the last days, nobody arrives in Korea with real reconnaissance miles. The most wide-open opener in living memory.

Flashback: how 2025 opened in Araxá

Men's Elite — Araxá 2025 (XCO): 1. Koretzky — 2. Blevins (+10 s) — 3. Vidaurre (+29 s) — 4. Forster — 5. Schurter. That Specialized 1-2-3 was the early warning of a historic year: Blevins finished with the XCO and XCC double in the overall standings.

Women's Elite — Araxá 2025 (XCO): 1. Maxwell — 2. Koller — 3. Blunk. Maxwell went on to win the 2025 Women's XCO overall, but the Kiwi has taken a sabbatical year: the defending champion isn't on the grid in 2026.

The board has changed: the big absences

• Victor Koretzky, out injured. Fractured left humerus, surgically repaired with a titanium plate. Misses Korea and Nové Město. Most optimistic return: Leogang (June 11-14).
• Alan Hatherly, out for the Giro. The XCO world champion will ride the Giro d'Italia with Jayco-AlUla in May. He won't return to MTB until summer, with the Val di Sole World Championships as his target. His strategic priority is the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic gold through road improvement.
• Nino Schurter retired. First World Cup opener without the Swiss since 2004.
• Vlad Dascalu returns to Trek-Unbroken XC after 17 months of suspension following the UCI Anti-Doping Tribunal's sanction.
• Jenny Rissveds is the reigning women's XCO world champion.
• Fabio Püntener (Scott-SRAM) holds the UCI XCO world ranking #1 spot since late 2025.
• Finn Treudler (Cube Factory Racing) moves up to Elite with a crushing U23 résumé: 8 XCO World Cup wins, 7 XCC, 2 overalls and the U23 rainbow jersey.

Without last year's winner and without the world champion, the first XCO of 2026 is probably the most unpredictable in a decade.

Men's pre-season: eight races, six different winners

La Nucía (C1, Feb 8): Brandl won by 0.46 s over Fini (Mondraker Factory Racing XC) and 0.47 over Amos.

Albenga (C1, Mar 1): Azzaro (Origine) outsprinted Forster (Thömus Maxon), with Avondetto third.

Chelva (HC, Feb 15): Schwarzbauer (Canyon) won the sprint by half a second over Luca Martin (Cannondale), with Moir and Aldridge within one second.

Banyoles (HC, Feb 22): Koretzky signed his last win before injury, ahead of Dario Lillo (Giant Factory Off-Road Team) and Schwarzbauer. Fini took over the Super Cup Massi lead.

Fullgaz Race (Germany, March): In a mudbath, Forster 2nd and Vital Albin 3rd, Flückiger 6th.

Pernes-les-Fontaines (HC, Mar 27-29): Jordan Sarrou (BMC Factory Racing) won with authority. Confirmed his return to top form after a 2025 plagued by injuries. Cullell, Carod and Duquesne abandoned with health issues.

Sabiñánigo (C1, Mar 22): Jofre Cullell (BH Coloma Team) won solo on the course designed by José Antonio Hermida.

Les Monts de Guéret (HC, Apr 17-19): In XCC, Luca Martin outsprinted Sarrou and Rouffiac. Sarrou's third consecutive French podium.

Ötztaler MTB Festival – Haiming (HC, Apr 25): Bjorn Riley's punch. A week before the World Cup, Bjorn Riley (Scott-SRAM) lands his first Elite HC victory with 1:18:12, taking over a minute on Forster (2nd). Bair, Foidl and Frischknecht completed the top-5.

Three key takeaways from Haiming:

• Scott-SRAM lands in Korea with the most threatening duo: Püntener (UCI #1 by consistency) and Riley (fresh HC winner).
• Riley is back on the map: the American spent all of 2025 fighting chronic back issues, with DNFs at Val di Sole and Andorra.
• Forster's gap to Riley is misleading: the Swiss suffered a puncture during the race, which forced him to manage the rest of the lap and conditioned his final time. His real level in Haiming was clearly closer to Riley's pace than the final scoreboard suggests.

North America: Blevins won two US Pro Cups but DNF'd at the second Fayetteville round, where Riley Amos took the win. Flückiger won the Swiss Cup. Blevins lost the UCI #1 spot to Püntener in March.

Cape Epic: Beers/Nortje won the overall. Schwarzbauer/Gaze took two stages. Braidot/Avondetto won stage 5.

Women's pre-season: the year of the rising stars

La Nucía (C1): Henderson (Orbea Fox Factory Team) won over Urban (KMC Nukeproof) and Gibson (Trek Unbroken XC).

Albenga (C1): Stigger (Specialized) beat Keller (Thömus Maxon) and Pedersen.

Chelva (HC): Anne Terpstra (Lapierre PXR Racing) won after a last-lap duel with Richards (+6 s). Gibson, Mitterwallner and Jackson closed the top-5. Rissveds withdrew due to illness.

Banyoles (HC): Nicole Koller (Lapierre PXR) won over Valentina Corvi (+16 s), Urban, Richards and Cortinovis.

Sabiñánigo (C1): Chiara Teocchi (BH Coloma) took the Super Cup Massi lead.

Pernes-les-Fontaines (HC, Mar 27-29): enter Berta. Martina Berta (Origine Racing Division) signed a double: she won the XCC and the XCO, with Isla Short 2nd and Ronja Eibl 3rd.

Les Monts de Guéret (HC, Apr 17-19): Berta + Rissveds + Eibl. Berta won again with 1:22:02, her third HC victory of the year, ahead of Jenny Rissveds (+12 s) and Ronja Eibl (+25 s).

Three takeaways: Berta arrives flying (three HC wins), Rissveds confirms form in her last European outing, and Origine Racing Division validates as a solid women's project.

North America: Haley Batten (Specialized) won two US Pro Cups, though at Fayetteville Gibson beat her by 17 seconds.

Cape Epic — the Courtney case. Lill and Keller (Thömus Maxon Sabi Sabi) won the overall. But the real story was elsewhere: Kate Courtney, reigning XCM world champion, came in with Melisa Rollins as her partner, but Rollins broke her elbow three days before the start. Courtney teamed up with Greta Seiwald and finished 2nd overall (+4:50) with one stage win, plus five second places in seven stages. She arrives in Korea with a workload and a mindset she hasn't had since 2021.

XCC: the Friday that defines Sunday

The Friday Short Track sets the Sunday XCO grid, and in its compact, explosive 20-minute format it has its own hierarchy of favorites. Three key 2025 data points:

• Christopher Blevins won the XCC overall in addition to the XCO. He is the pelotón's double specialist.
• Alessandra Keller (Thömus Maxon) was XCC world champion and a short-track race winner.
• Evie Richards (Trek Unbroken XC) took the 2025 women's XCC overall.

For Mona YongPyong's XCC, the favorites are: in men, Blevins, Treudler (who already dominated U23 XCC with seven consecutive wins in 2025), Schwarzbauer and Riley Amos. In women, Richards, Keller, Batten and, as a new name, Berta — although she's not a Short Track specialist, her current form makes her competitive in any grid. A good XCC start guarantees front row on Sunday: in an unknown circuit, that advantage doubles.

Snapshot: how each rider arrives at May 1

Men's Elite

Without Koretzky or Hatherly:

• Christopher Blevins (Specialized, USA) — 2025 XCO/XCC overall champion. Takes absolute leadership at Specialized.
• Bjorn Riley (Scott-SRAM, USA) — The hottest addition to the prediction after Haiming.
• Fabio Püntener (Scott-SRAM, SUI) — UCI #1. 26 years old. No World Cup victory yet, but metronome-level consistency.
• Finn Treudler (Cube Factory Racing, SUI) — Elite debutant with an unprecedented U23 résumé.
• Luca Schwarzbauer (Canyon, GER) — Chelva winner, two Cape Epic stages. The doubt is the South African toll.
• Jordan Sarrou (BMC Factory Racing, FRA) — 2020 world champion. Back at top level after an injury-hit 2025.
• Lars Forster (Thömus Maxon, SUI) — 2nd at Fullgaz, 2nd at Haiming despite a puncture that conditioned his final gap. Past World Cup winner with the experience to read a brand-new circuit. A real podium contender in Korea if his fluency from the early season carries over.
• Riley Amos (Trek Future Racing, USA) — Won a US Pro Cup, consistent European top-5.
• Sebastian Fini (Mondraker Factory Racing XC, DEN) — 2nd at La Nucía, 4th at Banyoles. Super Cup Massi leader.
• Charlie Aldridge (Cannondale, GBR) — 2025 Mont-Sainte-Anne winner. Realistic podium outsider.
• Luca Martin (Cannondale, FRA) — Two World Cup wins in 2025 in his first Elite year.
• Mathias Flückiger (Thömus Maxon, SUI) — Won Swiss Cup. At 37, dangerous in unknown circuits.
• Vlad Dascalu (Trek Unbroken XC, ROU) — Returns after 17 months. Was world #1 in 2022. Massive unknown.
• Dario Lillo (Giant Factory Off-Road Team, SUI) — 2nd at Banyoles. Without Hatherly, takes the Giant team weight.
• Jofre Cullell (BH Coloma Team, ESP) — DNF at Pernes (illness), win at Sabiñánigo. The Spanish hope arrives in rising form.

Women's Elite

• Evie Richards (Trek Unbroken XC, GBR) — 2025 XCC overall champion. Top-tier adaptability to new circuits.
• Jenny Rissveds (Canyon, SWE) — XCO world champion. 2nd at Guéret, 12 s behind Berta.
• Martina Berta (Origine Racing Division, ITA) — The big breakout: three HC wins in 2026.
• Anne Terpstra (Lapierre PXR Racing, NED) — Chelva winner.
• Kate Courtney (USA) — XCM world champion, 2nd overall at Cape Epic. Unbeatable mental form.
• Haley Batten (Specialized, USA) — Paris 2024 Olympic medallist.
• Nicole Koller (Lapierre PXR, SUI) — Banyoles winner, 2nd at Araxá 2025.
• Alessandra Keller (Thömus Maxon, SUI) — 2025 XCC world champion. Cape Epic dominance.
• Laura Stigger (Specialized, AUT) — Albenga winner.
• Mona Mitterwallner (Mondraker Factory Racing XC, AUT) — XCM world champion.
• Ronja Eibl (Origine, GER) — 3rd at Pernes and Guéret.
• Gwendalyn Gibson (Trek Unbroken XC, USA) — Top-3 Europe, beat Batten at Fayetteville.
• Valentina Corvi (Canyon, ITA) — U23, 2nd overall at Banyoles.

The wild cards no statistic can measure

• Jet lag. Seven hours from Europe. Teams with longer acclimatization windows are already on the ground.
• Weather. Spring in Korean mountains means changeable conditions. Wet rewards technical riders.
• The Cape Epic toll. Schwarzbauer, Avondetto, Braidot, Courtney and Keller arrive with eight South African days in the legs.
• Treudler and Dascalu. Two transitions (move up to Elite, return after suspension) that can break any prediction.
• Bjorn Riley's timing. Arriving at the World Cup with confidence at full, a week after winning HC.

Without Koretzky (injured) and without Hatherly (riding the Giro), the first round of the 2026 XCO World Cup loses both last year's winner and the reigning world champion at the start line. The natural next-in-line, Christopher Blevins, is the main favorite by default. But Bjorn Riley's win at Haiming reorders the hierarchy: Scott-SRAM lands with Riley and Püntener peaking together, and that's a real threat.

Behind them, at least seven men and seven women have real arguments to win. Riley, Treudler, Schwarzbauer, Sarrou, Püntener, Forster, Courtney, Berta, Terpstra, Richards and Rissveds are close enough to break any script.

And above all, Mona YongPyong is new ground for everyone. That, in itself, is the best invitation to the unexpected. May 3, we'll know.